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到目前为止,这是一次疯狂的旅程,伙计们我们从张桌子的名玩家开始Ifs beena wildride sofar,folks.现在我们只剩下五张牌桌的前80400名玩家We startedout with400players at80tables.25和我一起在展位上的是琳达•菲尔兹Now weredown toour top25players atfive tables.的负责人Linda Fields,With me in thebooth isLinda Fields,Royal Flush琳达,你支援谁?Rumble Tournamentthe headof theRoyal Flush RumbleTournament.哦,你不会把我带到那里的,史蒂夫Linda,who are you rootingfor我是一个中立的政党Oh,youre notgoing toget methere,Steve.但我必须承认,I ama neutralparty.卡米尔•劳森的比赛令人印象深刻But Imust admit,Camille LawsonCamille看起来她在追逐同花顺Lawsons gameis impressive.底池高达Looks likeshes chasinga flush.160k三名玩家弃牌,The potis upto160k.在此过程中以美元的价格建造底池,Three playershave folded,除了伊桑•斯蒂尔40building thepot by$40k in the process,我的意思是,伊森是个磨床except forEthan Steele.他在比赛中表现不错I mean,Ethans agrinder.但今年,他真的加强了自己的比赛,Hes doneokay in the tournamentscene.一夜成名现在,卡米尔的脸红破了But thisyear,he hasreally steppedup his game,;她的高牌是becoming astar overnight.呃,我们可以推动它吗?Now Camillehas a busted flush.10第三次?Uh,can wepush it这是关于亚历克的案子吗?For athird time你知道亚历克记得的干洗店的面包车吗?Is this about Alecscase我刚刚和店主的女儿谈过话You knowthe drycleaner*s vanthat Alecremembered原来是一辆I justspoke to the ownersdaughter.osuv但是那辆面包车带著他们的标志四处行驶It turnsout it was anSUV.可能是一个封面在毒枭中一直发生But thatvan is driving aroundwith theirlogo.所以我要伸出援手一那太好了Probably acover.Happens all the timein narco.但教堂爆炸案是一个冷酷的案例,就像在一样So Im going toreach out--Thats great.hearts;hearts;Backburner死去的人永远不会变冷But thechurch bombingisacold case,as inbackburner.13我只是担心你没有看到更大的图景13people dyingnever getscold.我应该回去工作了Im justworried youre not seeingthe biggerpicture.我去吃午饭我稍后会更新你I shouldget backto work.看看他Ill takethe lunch.Til updateyou later.他看起来像最好的扑克玩家吗?Look athim.甚至是最好的扑克作弊者?Does helook likethe bestpoker player这一切都可能是他噱头的一部分Or eventhe bestpoker cheater你想让我做介绍吗?It couldall bepart of his shtick.啊,我最好一个人去,这样他就看不到任何事情了You wantme tomake theintroduction好吧,如果你需要我,请打电话Ah,I bettergo aloneso hedoesnt seeanything coming.hearts;hearts;很抱歉打扰,但你是伊桑・斯蒂尔吗Well,call awayif you need me.来自Sorry tointerrupt,but are you Ethan Steele Royal FlushRumble被指控有罪•你是?Tournamentfrom theRoyalFlushRumble TournamentGuiltyas charged.-And youre亚历克哇,我简直不敢相信是的Alec.Wow,I can*t believeit.我真的只是在和我的同事谈论你Yeah.你真的把它碾碎了I wasliterally justtalking tomy coworkerabout you.哦Youre reallycrushing itout there.我实际上在希尔登豪斯出版社工作,Oh.我们认为我们的观众会喜欢听听你的故事你有没有想I actuallywork forHildenhouse Publishing,过一本书的交易?and wethink ouraudience wouldlove tohear yourstory.我的意思是,那太棒了You everthought about a bookdeal匪夷所思I mean,that would be amazing.首先,你必须告诉我你的秘密Fantastic.像这样一夜之间升级First,you gotto tellme yoursecret我保证我不会告诉任何人for levelingup overnightlike that.r也就是说,直到你在书中告诉世界I promiseI wont tella soul.如果我告诉你,你不会相信我的That is,not untilyou tellthe worldin yourbook.哦,我敢打赌我会的You wouldnt believe meif Itold you.好吧井Oh,I betI would.自从我发现这个,All right.Well...就像我的游戏完全扭转了局面ever sinceI foundthis,就像我知道该做什么以及何时做一样ifs likemy gamehas completelyturned around.毫米?Its like I knowwhat to do andwhen.Mm你是对的我不相信你两点!-下注Youre right.I dont believe you.嗯Snake eyes!-Place yourbets.cHmm.o0-M-G罗斯是谁?O-M-G.我刚刚处理的一个案件的女人Who isRose好吧,你要给她回短信吗?A womanfrom acase I was juston.hearts;hearts;我不确定我是否准备好了这一切Well,areyougon*text herback这是关于玛丽莎的吗?Im notsure Imready for all that.因为你知道她正在和那个辣妹约会Is thisabout Marisa来自该机构,对吧?Cause you know shesdating thathottie;这与她无关•那它是什么?from theagency right她不漂亮吗?Its notabout her.-Then whatis it她不聪明吗?Is shenot pretty或者不一Is shenot smart她比你聪明吗?Or no-现在,这很有趣is shesmarter thanyou玫瑰很棒Now,that wouldbe funto watch.她绝对没有错Rose isgreat.只是我还没有上过市面Theres absolutelynothing wrongwith her.在很长很长一段时间内Its justthat I havent beenon themarket现在,这就是你给我发短信的原因吗?in along,long time.hearts;hearts;不Now,is thatwhy youtexted me我刚刚和伊森坐下来No.他相信自己成功的秘诀I justsat downwith Ethan.是他的幸运符°And hebelieves thesecret tohis success我需要你的说明,看看这是不是真的is hislucky charm.*我们桌上有钱*I need your helpto seeif that*s true.嘿,你介意给我拍几张照片吗?*We gotmoney on the table*我似乎找不到正确的角度Hey,would youmind takinga fewphotos ofme似乎不可能I cant seem toget theright angle.Seems impossible.但是,是的,当然我抓住你了But yeah,of course.I gotyou.-——-o来吧,头等舱,呃*One,two,three.*是的看?*Come on,first class,uh*不可能的Yes.See让我在这里再和你一起说一个Impossible.Let meget onemore withyou here.你会这么说吗,One,two...Would yousay that,现在知道了技巧和噱头,你不太可能继续赌博吗?now knowingthe tricksand gimmicks,猜猜这是不行的areyouless likelyto continuegambling你还没吃饱吗?Guess thatsa no.我已经吃了三天的食物了Arent youfull yet这被称为从适应中释放Fve hadenough foodfor threedays.如果我坚持少食多餐,我的享受会持续更长时间Its calledrelease fromadaptation.这是在教授的第二本书中If Istick tosmaller meals,my enjoymentlasts longer.我认为是时候进入研究的第二阶段了Its in the professorssecond book.教授给了我们钱来发现非理性,I thinkits time to moveon tophase twoof thestudy.而不是在伯蒂的自助餐上闲逛Professor gaveus moneyto findirrationality,我以为目标是与赌徒商量,not loiterat Bertiesall-you-can-eat buffet.不加入他们I thoughtthe goalwas toconfer withthe gamblers,我想让他们说话not jointhem.我不能像拿著剪贴板的精神病患者一样在他们身上徘徊I wantthem totalk.我必须融入其中I canthover overthem likea psychowith aclipboard.天哪,我赢了Ive gotto blendin.这太疯狂了Holy crap,I won.你能相信吗?This is crazy.我想我得开始叫你幸运女神了Can youbelieve that怎么了?I guessIm going to haveto startcalling youlady luck.我们会找到答案的Whats up那是--伊森的硬皮美人鱼吗?We*ll findout.是的是的,它是Is that--Ethans crustymermaid你是怎么得到的?Yes.Yes,it is.注意力被误导■毫米How didyou getthat也被称为凯莉的技能Misdirected attention.-Mm.类似于安慰剂效应,Also knownas Kyliesgot skills.人们将运气附著在物体上当然,这无济于事Similar to the placeboeffect,people attachtheir lucktoan object但他们对它的信念给了他们过度的信心that,of course,does nothing.所以如果伊森相信这条美人鱼But theirbelief init givesthem excessconfidence.正在推动他的成功,那么没有它的比赛应该会让他退出比赛So ifEthan believesthis mermaid这就是目标isdriving his success,then playingwithout itshould throwhim offhis game.根据我与伊森的对话,Thats thegoal.我有一种感觉他在撒谎Based onmy conversationwith Ethan,关于他的幸运符在多大程度上改善了他的游戏I have a feelinghes lying我们很快就会知道,不是吗?about how much hisluckycharm improvedhis game.r是的-好!We llsoon findout,won*t we好吧Yes.-Nice!伊森向我承认事实并非如此All right.只是技能的突然激增Ethan admittedto methat its not根据你和他的游戏,just asudden surgeof skills.我们知道这不是信心-运气的回圈推动他的成功And basedon yourgame withhim,we knowthatits notthe confidence-luck cycle这意味著他一定是在作弊drivinghissuccess.同意Which meanshe hasto becheating.即便如此,也需要时间来弄清楚Agreed.我只剩下几个小时的筹码了在他把我击倒之前Even so,its goingto taketime to figure itout.I onlyhaveafew hoursof chipsleft然后也许我们走开了,卡米尔before heknocks me out.这只是一场比赛Then maybewe walkaway,Camille.不仅如此•最后我一直在等Its justone tournament.告诉我Its morethan that.-Finally.Tve beenwaiting.我,嗯.・・・・・Tell me.有很多事情要做L um...我知道在一场公平的比赛中,我能赢theres justa lotontheline.但如果你不这样做呢?I knowin afair game,I couldwin.这很复杂But if you dont你必须是复杂的部分Its complicated.这个人是谁?You mustbe thecomplicated part.别管他他不是其中的一部分Whos thisguy一旦你认识了我们,Just leavehim alone.He*snotpart of this.Once youmade ouracquaintance,你是其中的一部分不要以为你的口袋里有万美元,youre partofthis.200是吗?Dont supposeyouve got$2million in your pocket,你是高利贷者do youhearts;hearts;hearts;嗯,放债人得到了一个更友好的戒指You*re loan sharks.所以你有现金吗?Mm,moneylenders.Got afriendlier ringto it.如果没有,我们将需要一些抵押品尽快So yougot thecash当你不这样做时,就会发生这种情况If not,were goingto need some collateralASAP.按照您的承诺执行Thats whathappens whenyou don*t呃,对不起perform likeyou promised.我还没有正确地介绍自己Uh,sorry.我叫亚历克•默瑟I haventproperly introducedmyself.我是威尔顿大学的行为科学教授My nameis AlecMercer.我不能给你钱,Im aprofessor ofbehavioral scienceat WyltonUniversity.但我可以给你一些免费的建议I can*t getyou yourmoney,我一直在与企业合作but I can offeryou somefree advice.据我所知,I work with businessesallthetime.你的运行效率低下And fromwhat I can see,你是想让子弹射进头部吗?youre runningyours inefficiently.不Are youtrying toget abullet inthe head我只是来帮忙的,这样我们最终都会名列前茅No.也就是说,你应该知道卡米尔为什么打电话给我Im justhere tohelp so that weall endup ontop.hearts;hearts;我保证你对此感兴趣That said,you shouldknow whyCamille calledme.启发我I promiseifs ofinterest toyou.比赛中有一个作弊者Enlighten me.我们正在把他赶出去Theres acheater atthe tournament.这就是我一直在输的原因Were inthe processof flushinghim out.我们仍然需要一些抵押品Thats why Ive beenlosing.你认为你在激励卡米尔Were stillgoingtoneedsomecollateral.表现得更好,但你只是在给她压力,You thinkyoure incentivizingCamille这让她的表现更糟to performbetter,but yourejust stressingher out,那which makesher performworse.以下是我们要做的Well...目前没有抵押品heres whatwere goingto do.但兴趣上升了No collateralfor now.你有小时的时间给我钱,外加另外But theinterest goesup.365%谈半结束Youve got36hours toget memy moneyplus another5%.U你真是太棒了End ofnegotiation.你拉动的开关跟踪他们You were amazing.然后当我们给多米尼克打上标签时The switchtracking youpulled onthem.Q改变对话模式And thenwhen wetag-teamed Dominic.真的把他电掉了Changing thepattern ofconversation卡蜜really threwhim off.我很尴尬Camille.我不一一我什至不知道从哪里开始Im soembarrassed.开始怎么样?I dont-I donteven knowwhere tostart.当我第一次到达拉斯维加斯时,感觉我不能输How aboutthe beginning我这么快就赚了这么多钱When Ifirst gotto Vegas,it felt likeI couldnt lose.感觉它总是这样I wasmaking somuch moneyso quickly.在不知不觉中,我左右花钱And itfeltlikeit wouldjust alwaysbe likethat.我我给我妈妈买了一栋房子And beforeI knewit,Iwasspending moneyleft andright.hearts;hearts;hearts;她为我牺牲了很多,I-I boughtmy moma house.我终于可以给她应得的了And shesacrificed somuch forme,我明白了and I could finallygive herwhat shedeserved.你成了结果偏差的受害者I getit.当事情好的时候……You fellvictim tooutcome bias.很容易假设他们永远都是这样,When thingsare good...她唯一的希望就是虚张声势地把伊森赶走Her highcard isa ten.注Her onlyhope isto bluffthe hellout ofEthan.Camille F75koCamille bets75k.她试图欺骗伊森相信她有绊倒王牌Shes tryingto trickEthan现在,伊森的内线直截了当into believingshes gottrip aces.他的高牌是千斤顶他应该弃牌Now,Ethan hasabustedinside straight.我打电话His highcard isa jack.He shouldfold.hearts;hearts;哦,我的上帝!I call.伊桑•斯蒂尔刚刚打来电话Oh,my God!Ethan Steelehearts;hearts;,迫使卡米尔露出她被破坏的手Ethan Steelejust called,伊森取得了胜利forcing Camilleto showher bustedhand.伊桑•斯蒂尔的又一精湛举动Ethan takesthe win.Ethan Steele这家伙正在碾压它!不可思议Another masterfulmove byEthan Steele.你怎么知道的?This guyis crushingit!Incredible.我没有How didyouknow我只是运气好,我猜I didnt.我是扑克玩家I justgot lucky,I guess.我不相信运气Im apoker player.哦这很好I don*tbelievein luck.凯莉,我们有个袋子要拆箱Ooh.This isnice.50事后不难看出,Kylie,we have50bags tounbox.Ifs easy to assumetheyll alwaysbe likethat,which iseasytosee inhindsight,尤其是当它不是你的时候但一切都很顺利especially whenits notyou.直到两周前我在现金游戏中玩了伊森But everythingwas goingfine我以前玩过他,但是….until I played Ethanin acash gametwo weeksago.那天晚上他的比赛有些不同And I had playedhim before,but...怎么会这样?something abouthisgamethat nightwas different.他有优势How so好像他已经知道我手里拿著什么He had an edge.然后我简直不敢相信他在打我,Like healready knew what Iwas holding.所以这让我很紧张And thenI couldntbelieve that he wasbeating me,我所做的每一个决定都变得越来越糟sothatput meon tilt.直到我花光了我拥有的每一分钱Every decisionI madegot worseand worse比我所拥有的还要多until Ispent everypenny thatIhad.然后这导致高利贷More thanwhat Ihad.T hearts;hearts;hearts;令人惊讶的是,当您需要它们时,它们会出现Then thatled you to theloansharks.但他们说他们可以保释我It isamazing howtheyll showup whenyouneedthem.并偿还我的债务和本次锦标赛的买入费But theysaid theycould bailmeout但你知道它们是什么hearts;hearts;and covermy debtsandthe buy-in forthis tournament.是的,我知道他们是谁But youknewwhatthey were.但我想如果我赢了,那么它将涵盖一切,Yes,I knewwho theywere.我会摆脱困境But I thought if I won,then itwould covereverything,如果你输了?and Iwouldbeoff thehook.那我就负债累累了And ifyou lose我妈妈将失去她的房子Then Iwill bein deepdebt.hearts;你一定对我太失望了And mymom willlose herhouse.很抱歉,我把你拖进了这个You mustbe sodisappointed inme.我-----我只是不知道还能给谁打电话Im sosorry thatI draggedyou intothis.hearts;hearts;我--I-I justdidnt knowwho elseto call.我来这里是为了说明你I--不要评判你,卡米尔I camehere tohelp you.你让我弄清楚Not tojudge you,Camille.所以You askedmetofigure itout.好好休息一下So...我需要你专注于明天的比赛get somerest.我有一个计划I needyoutofocus forthat gametomorrow.我知道你为设计了标志I gota plan.那么你还把它卖Jojos DryCleaners给了谁呢?I knowthat youdesigned thelogo forJojos DryCleaners.hearts;hearts;一旦它离开商店,So whoelse didyou sellit to这与我无关Once itleaves theshop,另外,那是一百万年前的事了it aintgot nothingtodowith me.我应该如何记住?Plus,itwas,like,a millionyears ago.•一灭亡车How amI supposedto remember2023有一辆车装满「甲基苯丙胺2023—an exterminationvanhearts;hearts;hearts;年,一辆缆车的后备箱里装满了芬太尼had acar full of methamphetamines.2017年,一辆杂货车的仪表板上装满了2017,a cabletruck hada trunkfull offentanyl.O2013PCP你的观点是什么?2013,a groceryvan hada dashboardfull ofPCP.所有这些车辆都有令人信服的汽车包装And yourpoint现在,我敢肯定,如果我挖掘得足够深,All of these vehicleshad convincingcar wraps.你的名字会出现Now,Im sureif Idig deepenough,所以要么你告诉我一些关于这个标志的事情,your namewill comeup.否则我会确保费用叠加So eitheryou tellme somethingabout thislogo,他们不会停止来or Iwill makesure thecharges stackup我知道你正处于监护权之争之中and theydont stopcoming.如果这些指控坚持下去,I knowyoure inthe middleof acustody battle.你再也见不到你的孩子了If thesecharges stick,这是你想要的吗?you willnever see your kidsagain.等Is thatwhat youwant有一个遹遢的白人家伙要求干洗Wait.但我不擅长做脸•你是一名平面艺术家There wasa scruffywhite dudeasking fora drycleaning dupe.有什么难忘的吗?But Imnot goodwith faces.-You*reagraphic artist.如果你坚持下去,这将需要一整天的时间你付给我的钱不够Ifs goingto takeall dayifyoukeep thatup.所以我会尽可能地拿走我的奖金You dontpay meenough.哦!So Illtake mybonuses whereI can.这又是为了什么?Ooh!我们想衡量人造名牌包包的程度What isthis foragain影响一个人的个人道德We wantto measurehow fauxdesigner bags伦理学,我喜欢这个包affect apersons personalethics.0schmethics我必须接受这个Ethics,schmethics.I likethis bag.卡米尔,已经很久了I gotto takethis.我很惊讶你的回答Camille,its beenages.我以为我现在应该在你的烧录书中了Fm surprisedyou answered.哦,我总是有时间照顾我最喜欢的学生I thoughtId beinyourburn bookby now.你还在玩扑克吗?Oh,I alwayshave timefor myfavorite student.你还认为这是不合理的吗?You stillplaying poker无理数?不You stillthink thatsirrational尽管如此,在竞争激烈的比赛中,这并不容易,Irrational No.男性主导的领域Still,it cantbe easyin acompetitive,刻板印象税有其好处male-dominated field.当他们低估我时,我会发挥这个优势Stereotype taxhas itsperks.哦,很高兴知道你从When theyunderestimate me,Iplay我身上学到了一些东西to thatadvantage.我从你身上学到了很多东西,亚历克Oh,its niceto knowyou learnedsomething fromme.实际上,这就是我打电话的原因I learneda lotfrom you,Alec.hearts;hearts;我正在参加这个大型锦标赛,Actually,thats whyI called.我认为其中一名球员在作弊Im playingin thishuge tournament,你认为还是你知道?and Ithink oneof theplayers is cheating.我看到了明显的微表情You thinkor youknow他中途改变了自己的举止,I sawtelltale microexpressions.但他进行了眼神交流He changedhis demeanormid-hand,我真的可以用你的帮助来解决这个问题but hemade eyecontact.拉斯维加斯之旅听起来怎么样?■有趣Icouldreally useyour helptofigurethis out.但是那里不是有整个安全小队吗Hows atrip to Vegas sound-Intriguing.致力于这种事情?But aren*t therewhole securitysquads there是的,但他们看不到你能看到的东西devoted tothis typeof thing赌博欺诈不是我典型的驾驶室Yes,but theycantseethe thingsthat youcan see.我知道但这是一一Gambling fraudisnt mytypical wheelhouse.这不仅仅是一场游戏,亚历克I know.But thisis-这里有很多利害关系this isn*t justabout agame,Alec.拜托,我不会要求你的说明Theres alot atstake here.如果我真的不需要它Please,I wouldntask foryour help卡米尔,你遇到了多少麻烦?ifI didnt reallyneed it.Camille,howmuchtrouble areyou in足以给你打电话hearts;hearts;我希望你正在出售的路上Enough tocall you.无论你有什么股票hearts;hearts;我不需要出售I hopeyou*re onyour wayto sellwhateverstocks youvegot.hearts;hearts;我已经把这场比赛放在了包里I dontneed tosell.在我看来不是这样Ive gotthis tournamentinthebag.r你会得到你的钱It doesnt lookthat wayto me.我会的You*!!get yourmoney.*今晚幸运地成为一位女士*That Iwill.很高兴你能腾出时间*Luck bea ladytonight*我爱卡米尔・哦,你的意思是你喜欢拉斯维加斯So happyyou couldmake thetime.一样,一样;I loveCamille.-Oh,you mean you loveVegas.你认为我们有时间去水疗中心吗?Same same.一个小游泳池和阳光,然后是一张桌子?Do youthink wehave timefor thespa,a littlepool andsun,and thena或者也许我会到达那个地方table我可以同时游泳和赌博吗?Or maybeIll hitthat spotwhere我承认没有比这更好的地方了Icanswim andgamble atthe sametime研究非理性行为Ill admittheres nobetter place我知道你不是在说我to studyirrational behavior.但我想这就是你带上你的团队的原因I knowyourenottalking aboutme.这太酷了But Imassuming thatswhy youbrought yourteam.我以前从未去过拉斯维加斯This isso freakingcool.提醒我感谢这个卡米尔人Ive neverbeen toVegas before.她到底是怎么回事?Remind meto thankthis Camilleperson.她一定对教授很重要Whats herdeal anyway她是他的首席研究助理She musthave beenimportant tothe professor.她超级聪明,超级注重细节,She washis headresearch assistant.超级雄心勃勃Shes supersmart,super detail-oriented,哦,我明白了在菲比之前,她是菲比super ambitious.等等,这是否意味著你就是我?Oh,I getit.She wasPhoebe beforePhoebe.不•哦Wait,does that meanyou were me无论如何,我放弃了这个程式No.-Oh.大约一年半前搬到了拉斯维加斯Anyway,she abandonedthe program如果您有机会与教授一起工作and movedtoVegasaboutayear anda halfago.在Mercer最负盛名的行为科学课程中If youhad thechance toworkwithProfessor Mercer在国内,为什么要放弃呢?inthemost prestigiousbehavioral scienceprogram这根本没有意义inthecountry,why giveit up因为这是拉斯维加斯,宝贝That justdoesnt makesense.任何事情都可能发生Because itsVegas,baby.*今晚*Anything canhappen.*Tonight*你好哦,见到你真是太好了Hi.你看起来很棒Oh,its sogood toseeyou.你的头发一一你的头发是一一You lookgreat.嗯嗯,很长And your hair-yourhairis-是的,它会随著时间的推移而做到这一点Mm-hmm,long.好吧,我正在挖掘它Yeah,it doesthat withtime.和教授Well,Im diggingit.And Professor.哦!告诉我我为什么在这里Oh!伊桑•斯蒂尔Tell mewhy Imhere.他是你基本的中级球员EthanSteele.他从未进入过任何锦标赛的决赛桌Hes yourbasic mid-level player.现在他一轮又一轮地获胜Hes nevermade ittothefinal tableof anytournament.用超边缘的手And nowhes winninground afterround作为博弈论最优的专家,with super-marginal hands.我可以肯定地说,他的所作所为是疯狂的And asan expertin gametheory optimal,我看到了他上一场比赛的统计数据Icansafely saywhat heis doingiscrazy.大胆的举动用千斤顶打电话I sawthe statson hislast game.hearts;hearts;但这并不意味著他在作弊bold movecalling witha jack.这就是为什么我需要你的说明But thatdoesn*tmeanhes cheating.也许这只是祝你好运Which iswhyIneedyourhelp.我不相信运气,Maybe itsjust goodluck.但我确实相信统计集群I don*tbelievein luck,这会影响信心but Ido believein statisticalclusters我们越有信心,我们赢得的就越多,that influenceconfidence.所以我们把它解释为运气The moreconfident weare,the morewe win,信心-运气回圈so weinterpret itas luck.但这也会改变他的损失计划The confidence-luck cycle.对吗?But thatwould changethe planofhislosses,too.这就是为什么我不断回到这个想法Right他在作弊,老实说这很伤人Thats whyI keepcoming backtotheidea因为我们做朋友已经有一段时间了thatheischeating,which honestlyhurts猜猜你永远不认识一些朋友because wevebeen friendsforawhile now.拉斯维加斯到处都是肆无忌惮的人物Guess younever knowsome friends.人们的道德指南针可以改变Vegas isfullofunscrupulous characters.以匹配他们的周围环境Peoples moralcompass canshiftto matchtheir surroundings.这是你来这里所冒的风险之一搬到这里是风险最小的事情之一Thats oneof therisks youtook cominghere.我本来可以做到的Moving herewas oneoftheleast riskythings作为一名没有保证的研究生负债累累Icouldhave done.一份工作是一场糟糕的比赛Going intodebt asa gradstudent withno guarantee没有冒犯,菲比of ajob isa badplay.没错,生活中没有保证No offense,Phoebe.但我试图为你的成功做好准备True,there areno guaranteesin life.我以为你很开心But Itried toset youup forsuccess.你在学术界有前途Ithoughtyouwerehappy.在扑克中,一旦我看到我的牌,我就知道我的赔率And youhadafuture inacademia.然后我可以阅读其他玩家,In poker,once Isee mycards,I knowmy odds.我可以采取下一步行动Then Ican readthe otherplayers,这让我掌控一切and Ican makemy nextmove.对不起,我必须接受这个That putsmein control.是的Sorry,Ihaveto takethis.这看起来不像是控制者Yeah.卡米尔肯定在隐瞒什么That doesntlook likesomeone whosincontrol.这就是我来这里要发现的Camille isdefinitely hidingsomething.但首先,我要找到伊森Thats whatFm hereto findout.你准备好了吗?But first,Imgoingto findEthan.玛丽莎?You readyto go对不起,我没有听到你的声音怎么了?Marisa马丁内斯案的代表正在等待Sorry,Ididnthear you.Whats up我们安排好了午餐记得?The repfor theMartinez caseis waiting.We havethat lunchscheduled.Remember。