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P3As wementioned in the previouslecture,there is an importanthot issueatpresent:the trade war betweenChina and the United States.批注[李1]我们在之前的章节提到过,目前有一个重要On July11th,2018,the U.S.government announced a10%tariff on about200billion的热点问题:中美之间的贸易争端U.S.dollars ofgoods importedfrom China.On Augustsecond,the U.S.governmentraised thetariff to25%.批注[李2]:2018年7月11日美国政府宣布对从中国进P4Now,lets considerthe followingquestions:口的约2000亿美元商品加征10驰关税,8月2曰又将加•what isthe backgroundand reasonfor the U.S.trump administrationto launcha征税率提高至25%otrade warwith China•what doesimports tariffsmean forthe U.S.and China•What factorsshould a country takeinto accountwhen makingtrade policies批注[李3]:现在,让我们思考以下问题Every countrymust considerthe realisticbackground beforethey formulatetheir美国特朗普政府发起对中国贸易战的背景和原因是什own economicpolicies.These policiesshould notonly adaptthe internationaland么?domestic economicsituation,but alsosatisfy theinterest demandsof different美国对进口自中国的商品加关税,对美国和中国分别意味domestic groups.Generally speaking,acountrywill experiencedifferent stagesof着什么?development lengthwaysfrom abackward agriculturalone toa developedindustrial一国制定贸易政策,需要考虑哪些因素?one.In themeantime,onahorizontal scale,there isa widegap in the levelofdevelopment betweencountries worldwide.Countries withdifferent levelsofdevelopment usuallydevelop differenttrade strategies.In thischapter,we willexploretypical tradepolicies ofdeveloped anddeveloping countries.批注[李4]:每个国家在制定自己的经济政策之前都必须P5It isa commonlyaccepted practiceto arrayall nationsaccording toreal income考虑现实背景这些政策既要适应国际国内经济形势,又要and thendraw adividing linebetween theadvanced anddeveloping ones.Included in满足国内不同群体的利益需求一般来说,纵向地看,一the categoryof advancednations arethose ofNorth Americaand WesternEurope,plus个国家从落后的农业国发展为发达的工业国会经历不同的Australia,New Zealand,and Japan.Most nationsof the world areclassified as发展阶段与此同时,从横向上看,世界各国的发展水平developing,or lessdeveloped nations.The developingnations aremost ofthose in还存在较大差距不同发展水平的国家通常会制定不同的Africa,Asia,Latin America,and theMiddle East.贸易战略本章将探讨发达国家和发展中国家的典型贸易P6Now,lets observethe historicalbackground ofthree wavesof globalization.政策First stage,from1870to1914,Developed countriescompleted theindustrial批注[李5]:通常来讲,世界上的所有国家可以按照实际收revolution.The applicationof newtechnologies reducedthe costof transportationandcommunication.New technologiespromoted thedevelopment of globalization.But it入进行排列,分为发达国家和发展中国家发达国家包括was interruptedby twoworld warsand thegreat depression.北美和西欧国家,加上澳大利亚、新西兰和日本世界上Second stage,from1945to1980:developed countriescontrolled thefields of大多数国家被划分为发展中国家或欠发达国家发展中国manufacturing andservice,we callthem:the rich-country club.Developed countries家大多在非洲、亚洲、拉丁美洲和中东gain economiesof scalethrough morespecialized divisionof laborand industrialagglomeration.批注[李6]:现在,让我们来了解三次全球化浪潮这一历史Third stage,from1980to now:some developing countries,such asChina,India背景第一阶段,从1870年到1914年,发达国家完成and Brazil,enter into the worldmanufacturing market,but otherdevelopingcountries了工业革命新技术的应用降低了交通和通讯的成本,促are marginalizedand gottenin povertyincreasingly.In thiswave of globalization,进了全球化的发展但它被两次世界大战和1929大萧条所international capitalflows haveincreased significantly.打断P7Next,we takethe United States asan exampleto illustratethe developed第二阶段,从1945年到1980年:发达国家控制着制造业countries choicebetween free trade andprotectionism.This tableshows the average和服务业,我们称之为:富国俱乐部发达国家通过更加专U.S.tariff ratefrom1890to
2008.We cansee that the U.S.trade actsare basically业化的分工和产业集聚获得规模经济,第三阶段,1980年至consistent withthree wavesofglobalization,causing itstariff ratesfluctuated今,中国、印度、巴西等一些发展中国家进入世界制造业accordingly.In thelatest waveofglobalization,from1980to2008,theaverageU.S.市场,而其他发展中国家则日益边缘化,陷入贫困在这tariff ratestays below5percent.We cansay thatthis tariffrate keeps一全球化浪潮中,国际资本流动显著增加U.S.in afair degreeof free trade.P8However,the storychanged afterTrump becamethe Presidentof theUnited批注[李7]:接下来,我们以美国为例说明发达国家在自由States in
2016.Trump pursuedhis campaignstrategy ofAmerica first,and贸易和保护主义之间的选择这张表显示了1890年至implemented protectivepolicies ontrade andimmigration,such aswithdrawing from2008年美国的平均关税税率我们可以看到,美国的贸易TPR eventhreatening towithdraw fromWTO,launching atradewaragainst China,行为与三次全球化浪潮基本一致,导致其关税税率也随之promoting manufacturingback to theU.S.through taxand othermeans,and波动在最近的全球化浪潮中,从1980年到2008年,美strengthening immigrationcensorship.On trade,an importanttool oftrumps America国的平均关税保持在5%以下我们可以说,这个税率使美first isto launcha Sino-us tradewar toforce Chinato stepup intellectual property国保持了相当程度的自由贸易protection forU.S.businesses andprompt U.S.manufacturing companiesto move;factories inChina backtotheU.S.P9Why doesTrump pursueAmerica firstand rollout protectionismWe doa批注[李8]:然而,在2016年特朗普当选美国总统后,情simple analysisboth internationallyand domestically.First,the internationalcontext is:况发生了变化特朗普奉行“美国优先”的竞选战略,在贸the nationalismresurgence inthe worldwide.In fact,the nationalismin Europeis even易和移民问题上实施保护政策,如退出TPP、甚至威胁退出worse thanthat inAmerica.It ismainly reflectedin itsattitude towardsimmigrants,WT
0、对中国发动贸易战、通过税收等手段推动“制造业回especially Muslimimmigrants,which directlyled BritainBrexit andeven ledtothe流美国”、加强移民审查等在贸易问题上,特朗普“美disintegration ofthe EuropeanUnion.Lets lookatthedomestic context.In theUnited国优先”的一个重要手段便是发动中美贸易战,迫使中国States thereare anumber ofstates knownas therust belt,alluding tothe traditional加强对美国企业的知识产权保护,并促使美国制造企业将industrial statessuch asthe northeast,the Midwestand thegreat lakesregion,在华工厂迁回美国including Ohio,Pennsylvania,Michigan,Illinois andWisconsin andso on.These regionsrepresentthe heartof Americansmanufacture.The steelmakingindustry andrefining批注[李9]:为什么特朗普追求“美国优先”,推行保护主industry inOhio,the automobileindustry inMichigan,andthemetallurgical coke义我们从国内和国外两方面原因做了一个简单的分析首industry inPennsylvania areAmericans honorin1980s.But from1990s,under the先,国际背景是民族主义在世界范围内复活事实上,欧competition fromglobalization,freetradeand globalmanufacturing,for savingthe cost洲的民族主义甚至比美国还要严重这主要体现在对移民of labor,a largenumber ofmanufacturing enterprisesintheUnitedStatestransferred特别是穆斯林移民的态度上,这直接导致了英国的脱欧,to developingcountries representedby China.Especially underthe impactof financial甚至使欧盟面临解体让我们看看美国国内的情况在美crisis in2008-2009,in thesetraditional industrialand manufacturingstates,industrial国有许多州被称为“锈带”,暗指传统的工业州,如东北、decline notonly letthem rust,but alsomake theirpopulation rapidlyshrinking.The loss中西部和五大湖地区,包括俄亥俄州、宾夕法尼亚州、密of jobsand astagnant wagefor tenyears havecreated agreat dealof anxiety.President歇根州、伊利诺伊州和威斯康星州等这些地区代表了美Trumps Americafirst strategyand aseries ofprotectionist policiescater tothis国制造业的核心俄亥俄州的炼钢和炼制工业、密歇根州situation.的汽车工业和宾夕法尼亚州的焦炭冶金工业是美国人在20世纪80年代的荣耀但是从20世纪90年代开始,在全球After theU.S.announcedaseries oftariff increasesto China,the Chinese化、自由贸易和全球制造业的竞争下,为了节省劳动力成government ignoredthe Americandemands forintellectualpropertyprotection and本,美国大量的制造业企业转移到了以中国为代表的发展further openingup ofthe Chinesemarket,instead,China increasedthe importtariffs on中国家特别是在2008—2009年金融危机的影响下,在这U.S.soybeans andother commodities.This increasedthe costof importingsoybeans for些传统的工业和制造业州,工业衰退不仅让他们“生锈”,Chinese companies.Some companieshave toimport Braziliansoybeans thatare more而且使他们的人口迅速减少失业和十年来的工资停滞不expensive thanones soldintheUnitedStates.U.S.soybean farmersare alsostruggling前弓I起了极大的焦虑特朗普总统的“美国优先”战略because Chinaisan important marketfor them.This kindof reciprocaltariff is和一系列保护主义政策迎合了这种情况undoubtedly amutual harm.批注[李10]美国宣布对中国增加一系列关税后,中国政P10There isno doubtthat globalizationhas broughttremendous developmentto府无视美国对保护知识产权和进一步开放中国市场的要求,the world,especially toChina inthe reformand opening-up.That iswhy most反而提高了美国大豆等大宗商品的进口关税来应对这增economists areso enamoredof freetrade.Today,globalization and freetradeseem to加了中国公司进口大豆的成本一些公司不得不进口比美be sufferingagain.So,where doesthe globalizationandfree国企业售价更贵的巴西大豆美国种植大豆的农民也在苦苦挣扎,因为中国对他们来说是一个重要的市场这种相互增税的方式无疑是一种“互相伤害”,trade thattheworldonce pushedso hardfor,and whichChina stillinsists ontoday,gofrom hereThis isanimportantquestion foreveryone tothink about.批注[李11]毫无疑问,全球化给世界特别是改革开放后的中国带来了巨大的发展这就是为什么大多数经济学家OK,class isover,thanks forwatching,see youlater.如此迷恋自由贸易今天,全球化和自由贸易似乎再次遭遇挑战°那么,世界曾经为之奋斗、中国今天仍坚持不懈的全球化和自由贸易又将何去何从呢?这是一个值得每个人思考的重要问题批注[李12]:好的,下课了,谢谢收看,再见。